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人民币临“7” 关键时刻如何才能保住钱袋子

来源:经济观察报   编辑:    2018-08-06 15:51:08   查看:

“po7”?shichangdeminganshenjingbeizaiduciji,renminbiduimeiyuanjiqihuilvzi4yuechude6.27yilubianzhi8yuechude6.88,bianfuyu9.7%。

zheiyiweizhenixianzaihuan10000meiyuanjiaosigeyueqianyaoduohuayu6000yuanrenminbi,haiwaicaigoushi,yaoduozhifujin10%derenminbi;ruowaimaoqiyeweisuodinghuilvfengxian,zechangkousunshijin10%。

yunhebianliangjinrongdongshizongjingliliuxiashuo,jinnian4yue,meiyuankaishidafushengzhi,nianneimeilianchuhaijiangjiaxiliangci,meiyuanhaihuijixushengzhi。neime,renminbibianzhiyezhinengshuoshiganggangkaishi。

8yue2ri,renminbiduimeiyuanzhongjianjiajieshu4lianbian,diaosheng351gejidian,bao6.7942;danzaianrenminbidiepo6.84,lianrenminbiduimeiyuandiepo6.86。ciri,cnhrineilianpo6.88、6.89、6.90、6.91guankou。

yong“diediebuxiu”miaoshusigeyuelairenminbijiqihuilvdebiaoxianbingbuweiguo,mofei“bianzhiyuqi”youqi?yexuweibi。waihuidiaoqishichangsihushilingyifanjingzhi。jinrirenminbiyuanqitieshuixingqingzhaoshirenminbikansheng。

“xiangxinjuececengxiwangrangshichangfahuigengdadezuoyong。muqianjishishichangqingxupiankong,youbianzhiyali,dan1nianyuanqindfzoushixianshirenminbibingwubianzhiyuqi。”zhongguojinrongsishirenluntangaojiyanjiuyuan、guojiawaihuiguanlijuguojishouzhisiyuansizhangguantaoshuo,“muqiangaiyijiawei0.2%,2016nianniandirenminbibianzhiyuqijiaoqiangshi,qiyijiacenggaoda4%-5%。”

eryuqiguanlijichengdangxiajuececengdezhongzhongzhizhong。“guankongheyindaohaoshichangyuqishidangxiadeguanjian,yidanyuqishikong,jiangdadajiyayangxingdezhengcekongjian。”yiweiyangxingjiejinrenshishuo。

8yue3riwan7:00,yangxingguanwangfawen,zhongguorenminyinxingjuedingzi2018nian8yue6riqi,jiangyuanqishouhuiyewudewaihuifengxianzhunbeijinlvcong0diaozhengwei20%。cijuzhaoshirenminbikongtoudejiaoyichengbenjianghuibeitaisheng。xiaoxifuchu,lianrenminbiyingshengshangzhang。

yangxingcanshishengsongchengdui《jingjiguanchabao》shuo,shijiqingkuangshi,zhongmeidoubuxiwangrenminbidafubianzhi;yibucunzaisuoweidejunhenghuilv——zheishigeshihoudegainian。jinliangnianchixuyanjiuhefenxipanduanhuilvzoushidetarenwei,muqianrenminbibuhuipo“7”,yinqishiyigexinliguankou。

yiweixinanshangshiqiyedecaiwuzongjiangantanrenminbibianzhisuduzhikuai,qiyeshenzhilaibujifanying。zhengjiujieshifougaizuo“suohui”,jinxingtaoqibaozhi,danyoudanxingaoweibeitao。

dahuayinxing(zhongguo)huanqiujinrongbuzhuguanyangruiqigaosujingjiguanchabao,renminbibianzhiduichukouqiyexiangduiyouli,qiyekeyunyongyinxingtigongdewaihuitaoqibaozhigongju,liruwaihuiyuanqijiaoyi,waihuiqiquanhejiegouxingchanpinbangzhuqiyelaisuodingmeiyuanduirenminbihuilv,congersuodingrenminbishouyi。

xianzai,yushichangzhutieryan,buguanshiqiye、jinrongjigouhaishigeren,gezhongziweinanyiyanbiao,huoyouhuoxi;guanjianzaiyu,qiqiandaizigairuheqiuwenbu“bie”?

破“7”之虞

jiuzai8yue1ri,lianrenminbiduimeiyuandiepo6.84guankou,jiaozaojiangaoweihuiluojin400dian,bao6.8402。zaianrenminbiduimeiyuanbao6.8255,shitan6.83guankou。2ri,zaian、lianrenminbifenbiediepo6.84、6.86guankou;3ri,zaian、lianrenminbifenbiezaipo6.89、6.90guankou,ju“7”jinyixianzhige。zhiqiandeyicishizai7yue19ri,lianrenminbidiepo6.8。

liuxiarenwei,2018nianyilairenminbihuilvzoushimingxianfenweisangejieduan。diyijieduan,jinianchudao4yuezhong,meiyuanbianzhierrenminbigensuixingdexiangyingshengzhi。

dierjieduan:4yuezhongxunzhi5yuedi,meiyuanshengzhi,renminbisuizhixiangyingbianzhi。danliangzhedefudubingbuyizhi,zheiyijieduanmeiyuandeshengzhifududa6.2%,mingxiandayurenminbidebianzhifudu1.7%。

disanjieduan:6yuechuzhi8yue3ri,meiyuandazhiwendingerrenminbijiasubianzhi,youqishi6yuezhongxunzhihou—geyuenei,renminbiduimeiyuanzhongjianjiacong6.4bianzhidao6.83,bianzhifududa6.7%。

“6yuezhongxunyilairenminbidejiasubianzhi,cufayinsushiyangxingbugensuimeilianchujiaxi,ercuihuajizeshizhongmeimaoyizhanxiaduizhongguojingjibeiguanyuqiyousuozengjia。meiyuanzouqiangkeyijieshijuedabufenrenminbidebianzhi。”liuxiashuo。

zhongyinxianggangshouxijingjixuejiaezhihuanfenxi,renminbizhongjianjiadingjiaweimingxianpianlishichangyuqi。zhongmeimaoyimocashengwen,tishenglewaiweihuanjingdebuquedingxing,qiyexinxinshoudaoyidingyingxiang。jinnianyijidujingchangzhanghuludelishidierge、yeshizuidayigejidunicha,wei341yimeiyuan,shichangduizhongguochukoudeyoulvheguojishouzhibianhuashirenminbizouruo。

ezhihuanyizhuyidao,7yuefenyilaimeiyuanzhishuyousuohuidiao,danrenminbijixuzouruo,zheiyuzhongmeihuobizhengcefenhuajiadayouguan。jiazhi,jinriyangxingtongguoshishidingxiangjiangzhun、chaoexuzuozhongqijiedaibianli(mlf)、jiyushangyeyinxingzhongzhangqizijinyiguliqizengpeidipingjixinyongzhaidengcuoshi,shifangchaoguo1.4wanyiyuandeliudongxing,shidezhongzhangqizijinlilvjiaonianchuxianzhuhuiluojin100dian。zaimeilianchujiaxiruqituijindebeijingxia,shichangduiyangxinghuobizhengcebianjiqusongdegongshiyishirenminbizouruodeyuanyinzhiyi。

yiweizijinwaihuijiaoyirenshicheng,cilunbianzhi,shijingneiwaishichangyinsudezonghefanying,bingfeiyangxingkeyiyindao,keyikanzuoyangxingduihuilvbodongdanxingrongrenduzengjia,zhangqilaikan,shangxiadebodongfuduhaihuijinyibujiada。dangran,yangxingshifouyoujutidedianweikongzhi,yidingchengdushanghuishoumeiyuanzhishudeyingxiang。

youbieguowang,zheicisihushichangyuyangmadouzaishitanbiciduihuilvfengxiandechengshoudu。huoxu,ciqianbeiyangma“dabao”deyujishangzai,renminbikongtoubiandepoweijinshen,qichiyoudetoucunbugantaida。shichangxiangxin,biyaozhishi,yangmagaichushoushihuichushou,erqieneizhong“ganyu”weibixuyaoshiyongwaihuichubei。

yangmadebiyaozhishishinagedianweini?shengsongchengxiangxinrenminbimuqianbuhuipo“7”。zheigexinliguankoubuyichuanpo。

shengsongchengrenwei,huilvbianzhihuidailaihenduowenti。yishizibenwailiuyalizengda,haiyousundaguoxingxiang,gengjiarongyishimaoyimocashengji。ershijingchukouduiwoguojingjizengzhangdegongxianyishifenyouxian。2017nian,zuizhongxiaofeizhichu、zibenxingchengzongehejingchukoufenbieladonggdpzengsu4.1ge、2.2gehe0.6gebaifendian,jingchukouduijingjizengzhangdegongxianlvbingbugao,meiyoubiyaotongguobianzhicujinchukoulailadongjingji。

“tongguobianzhicujinchukoudezuofashidebuchangshide,suiranduanqineiyoukenenghuodejiageyoushi,danbuliyuqiyetigaochanpinzhiliang、tishenghexinjingzhengli。”shengsongchengshuo。

haijideneiyinianderenminbipo“7“shikema?

2016nian12yue29rineitian,renminbiduimeiyuanzhongjianbao6.9497,danjiuzai12yue28riwanjian,shichangyuyanle7shidaichangjing,dangwanpengbotigongdebaojiaxianshi,zaianrenminbiduimeiyuandiepole“7”。jiuci,yangmazaidiyishijianshengming:chengyougebiebufuzerendemeitibaodao“zaianrenminbiduimeiyuantupo7zhengshuweixinliguankou”,duicixingweibiaoshiqianze,bingbaoliujinyibuzhuijiuzerendequanli。

yuqishuoyangmanule,burushuoyangmachuandileyigebao“7”deyinmixinhao。

xianzaini?7yue31ridezhongyangzhengzhijuhuiyisuiweitijihuilv,danshouti“liuwen”。zhuru:wenjiuye、wenjinrong、wenwaimao、wenwaizi、wentouzi、wenyuqi;xipinzhei“liuwen”junyuhuilvyouzhezhijiehuojianjiedeguanlianxing。bufangdaozhekan,wenyuqi,wenyuqibuzhishijingjicengmian,gengyoushichangdexinxincengmian。

pengbojingjixuejiachenshiyuanrenwei,zhengzhijuhuiyiyaoqiuwendingjinrong,weitijirenminbihuilv,shuomingjuecezheduirenminbihuilvzanshichiyoukaifangdetaidu。erqietijidewenwaimao,qiahaoshishichangtuidonghuilvzoudihoudefudaijieguo。“weilaihuilvyinggaihuijixubijiaoziyoubodong,danshijiaodadebodong,birudiyu7,kenenghuiyinqizhengcedezhongshi。”chenshiyuanshuo。

neime,“7”shifouweiyangxingdeganyudianweini?duici,guantaomeizhijiehuida。tashuo,xiangxinyangxinghuizuoshapantuiyan,ceshirongrenduduoshao,keyichengdanshenmehouguo。danguoquyiduanshijian,renminbizhongjianjiameiyouganyudehenji,jibenzunshoulezhongjianjiagongshi。shangyilunderenminbihuilvbianzhikaoyanzhengmingyangxingyounengli、youtiaojian“weiwen”。genghekuang,yangxinggongjuxiangliyouhenduogongju,qiezhangwogaopinshuju;chiguokuiderenminbikongtoukenengbuganqingjuwangdong。

无形之“手”渐趋透明

bijing,cishifeibishi。shichangzhuti、juececengduifengxianderongrenduzaitisheng;baokuorenminbizhongjianjiaxingchengjizhiyijianqumingle。zheidagaishiyigexiangfuxiangchengdeguocheng,dangwuxingzhi“shou”jianqutoumingzhishi。

deyiyuguowangdejiaoxunjijiaoxianxingdejizhi,yiweizishenwaihuiguwenshuo,zheiyilundezhendong,qishibingbuxiangshangcineiyangda,shehuiqiyegejieduibodongzhujianshiying,qiyedefengxianfangfanyishiyousuotisheng,danjutidekexueguanliheguihuahaiyoudaitigao。

shichangbiandeyuelaiyue“touming”,ruguonidongxirenminbizhongjianjiahuilvxingchengjizhi,bunanjishizhangworenminbihuilvzhongjianjiadongtai。

zhideyitideshi,8yue2ri,renminbiduimeiyuanzhongjianjiajieshu4lianbian,diaosheng351gejidian,bao6.7942。erqianyijiaoyirizhongjianjiabao6.8293,16:30shoupanjiabao6.7948。

yijuxindehuilvdingzhixingchengjizhi,cong“shoupanjia+yilanzihuobi”keyikanchu,qianyirishoupanjia6.7948yuciridezhongjianjia6.7982poweiyizhi。

huachuangzhengquanhongguanjingjiyanjiuzhuguanzhangyushuo,zhengcecengmianzi2016nian6yuefenkaishi,qiangdiaoweichiyilanzihuobiwending,gaijizhiyiyoucizhengshiyunxing。yinci,ruguowaipanfashengbiandong,yaoweichiyilanziwending,zezhongjianjiayaozugouyoudanxing;huanyanzhi,meiyuanshengzhirenminbijiubianzhi,meiyuanbianzhirenminbijiushengzhi。

shishishang,juezhihuanguancha,jinguanjinqirenminbihuilvbianzhiyalijiada,danshichangbingweichuxianmingxiandekonghuangqingxu。jinnianrenminbihuilvjinglileyigewanzhengdediaozhengzhouqi,shichangduirenminbihuilvxingchengjizhijihuilvzhengcegengjialejie,shichangkeyitongguorenminbiwaihuiduichongchanpinjiyanshengchanpindenggongjulaipinghenghuilvbodongdefengxian。

“youyuneidiwaihuishichangjiyanshengpinfazhanjiaojingwaiyouchaju,weilailianshichangjiangchengweiduichongrenminbihuilvfengxiandezhuyaoshichang,xiangguanchanpinjiaoyiliangjiangjiakuaizengzhang。”tashuo。

buguo,zaichenshiyuankanlai,yangxingyoukenenghuikongzhihuilvjiezou。zhijueguanlicengmuqianshangweiquedinghuilvweilaizouxiang,dansilukendingheguoqubuyiyang。“wobujuede6.8shigeshizhixingzulidianwei,meiyuanmuqianjiaopingwen,renminbixianzaishigebijiaohaodeziyoufudongshiji。”

chenshiyuanrenwei,zheilunbianzhidedabeijing,shiguanlicengmingxiangengjiazhongshijinrongfuwushitijingjiyijijingjizhongdepaomowenti。duiyuhuilv,jinnianyilaijicibiaotaijiakuaihuigai,rangfudongdehuilvfanyingjingjijibenmianbianhua,congerqidaofangfanwailaichongjidediyizhongpingzhangzuoyong。

qicishimaoyizhanfengxianjiaju,shichufarenminbibianzhidezhuyaoyuanyin。maoyizhanhuishichukoushousun,jingjijibenmianehua,renminbihuilvyinciyouzifadiaozhengdexuyao。zaizhe,renminbihuilvbodong,bingmeiyouyinqijiaodazibenwailiuhewaihuichubeidafudubianhua。“zonghezheijigeyinsu,zhangqihuigaiheduanqijingjibianhuazhixiangtongyigefangxiang,renminbihuilvyincibodongjiada。yangxingjibenmeiyouganyushichangjuedingdehuilvfangxiang。”chenshiyuanshuo。

ezhihuangaosujingjiguanchabao,zhongmeimaoyizhanjuyouzhangqixing,fuzaxing,muqianduirenminbihuilvdeyingxiangzhuyaotixianzaishichangxinxincengmian,yujiaxiyuqishengwenxiademeiyuanzhishuzoushixingchenggongzhen,jiasutuidongrenminbibianzhi。weilaiyiduanshijiannei,maoyizhanduirenminbihuilvdeyingxiangjiangjinyibutixianzaishangpinjinchukoulingyu,youciyingxiangwaihuishichanggongqiu,daozhirenminbihuilvbodongjiada。

cishi,youzhengzhizhongguojinrongshichangkaifangjinchengtisu,shichangzhutigairuhejiaqianghuilvfengxianduichonghefengxiankongzhi?

如何稳钱袋子

“wuxingzhishou”dejianqutoumingguranyouzhuyushichangzhutiguanlihuilvfengxian,danyeshiyinreneryi,yinshierding,getichayijiaoda。

qishi,“zaojiuzuohaolezhunbei,sannianqiankaishizuomeiyuanlicai……”yiweinverzaimeiguoliuxuedegaozhimuqinshuo。qizairenminbihuilv6.3-6.4shi,huanlexiexuefei;dandangjinqirenminbibianzhi6.8shi,youhuanleyibufen。“ganjuenenghuanhaishihuanyixiehao,yexurenminbihuipo7。”

yiweixinanshangshiqiyedecaiwuzongjiangantanrenminbituranbiandetaikuai,qiyelaibujifanying,meiyuanyigeduoyuezhanglebaifenzhiqiba,chabuduodaolejinniangaowei,xianzaizheigeweizhijinxingsuohuifengxianjiaoda。

zaizheiweicaiwuzongjiankanlai,yifangmiangaidianweigujizhangdechabuduole;qianniandao6.9deshihou,dajiayiweihuidao7/7.2yishang,danzuizhongfanerwangxiazoule。suoyicishibijiaoliangnan:ruguo6.83qusuohui,kenenghuibeitao;ruobuzuo,youganjuehaiyouxiangshangkongjian,dankongjianduodabuhaopanduan。

“muqianzhongmeimaoyizhanshangwujielun,womenhuikanyangxinghuifoucaiquyixieganyudecuoshizuaimeiyuanjixushangzhangzaizuojueding,xianzaizheigediandajiajijixingdoubugao。”shangshucaiwuzongjianshuo。

zheiweicaiwuzongjiangaosu《jingjiguanchabao》,qiyezaimeiyuanduirenminbi6.3/6.4deshihouzuolesuohui——neishideshijijiaohao。qiyehaitongguohuanhuihailejibimeiyuanjiekuan,congjiekuandaohaizhaiyongleyiniandeshijian,jibenmeihaoyongchengben,houxubenxiangjiezhezuo,baokuohaiyoujibiyiniankuaidaoqidemeiyuanzhai,yexiangtongguoyonggouhuidefangshihuandiao,danbuqiaopengdaorenminbiliudongxingkaishijinzhang,yishiwufacaozuo。

jiuci,yangruiqicheng,shangshuqiyeyoutoujidexiangfa。yinweimeiyourennengquedingwaihuishichangweilaidezoushi,qiyedeguanlicengyinggaikongzhibuquedingdejinrongshichangfengxian。“guanlicengyinggaigenjuqiyedeyewumoshiyuxianjinliuqingkuang,liruyingshouzhangkuan、yingfuzhangkuan、hetouzijihuadengpanduanqiyedewaihuifengxian,jinliangzuohaotaoqibaozhi,erbushitoujiwaihuishichang。”tashuo。

zhiyuqiyedehuilvsunshichangkou,shangshucaiwuzongjianpoganxinwei,yinweiqisuozaideqiyexianzaimeiyouyongyuanqigouhuidefangfaquhaizhai,zheizhongfangshiyaozuohuijiqueren,waihuishichangdedafudubodonghuijiqiyedailaibuquedingdeyinglihuozhekuisun,douyaojirucaiwubaobiao。

gaicaiwuzongjianshuo,qiyexianzaidexiangfashiyaozaixianggangzhongxinchouhuazuzhiyintuanhefaxingmeiyuanzhaizhihuankuaidaoqidemeiyuanjiekuan,yinweiqishixianggangshangshigongsi,henduomeiyuandouzaixianggangyinxingjiede,jijingwaizhai,muqiandeyibishitongguoxinzhaiquguihailaozhai,huijiyuanzeshangkeyiyunxubuzuoqueren。

dangran,“renminbihuilvbodongjiada,huishiqiyewaibichangzhaifudanjiazhong,waihuifengxianchangkoujiaodadeqiyexuyaojiaqiangbixianyishi,shanyuliyongwaihuishichangdegongjukaizhantaoqibaozhi。”ezhihuanshuo。tajianyi,zaicicengmian,jinrongjigoukeyiweiqiyetigonghuobihuhuan、lilvhuhuan、yuanqiwaihuimaimai、qiquan、diaoqidengguanligongju,bangzhuqiyeyouxiaoguanliwaihuifengxian。dangqian,henduoqiyetongguoyunyongduoyanghuadejinrongshouduan,rutongguohaiwaifazhaidengfangshi,laituokuanrongziqudao、jiangdirongzichengben、youhuaqiyefuzhaijiegoudeng。

ciguochengzhong,“qiyehejinrongjigouxuyaobakonghaojingneiwaidejinronghuanjingbianhua(baokuolilv、huilv、shuilvdeng),chongfenliyonggezhongjinronggongjujinxingfengxianguanli。”ezhihuanshuo。